Tajikistan: Personnel reshuffle creates glide path for dynastic transition of power
Leo Tolstoy’s maxim ‘all happy families are alike, unhappy families are each unhappy in their own way’ is certainly applying to Tajik leader Emomali Rahmon’s extended clan these days. Familial discontent doubtless was stoked by Rahmon’s recent purge of relatives from top governmental positions, moves designed apparently to clear the way for his eldest and favored son, Rustam Emomali, to succeed him as Tajikistan’s paramount leader.
Rahmon’s press service announced the latest personnel changes January 23, focusing on the Defense Ministry. The reshuffle included the removal of the minister himself, Sherali Mirzo, who was transferred to lead the State Agency for the Protection of National Secrets. But other big names to get the sack were Beg Sabur, who headed the Communications Agency, and Yusuf Rahmon, who had held the post of prosecutor general. It just so happens that sons of both men are married to Rahmon’s daughters.
Earlier in January, Rahmon conducted a series of sweeping changes of regional and local officials. He also sent top officials from the National Security Council, the Supreme Court, the Foreign Ministry and the security servicespacking. The vast extent of the personnel moves has political tea-leaf readers in Dushanbe thinking that Rahmon is clearing the way for his son to assume the leadership of the country, removing potential opponents to the dynastic transition and installing more pliable figures in their place.
Rahmon is Central Asia’s longest tenured leader, having held the top spot in Tajikistan for over three decades. During that span he has assiduously consolidated power in his own hands, sidelining political rivals and invalidating a power-sharing arrangement that ended Tajikistan’s 1992-97 civil war. Still only in his early 70s, Rahmon reportedly has suffered from a variety of health issues.
Over the past few years, Rahmon has openly groomed his son, Rustam Emomali, as his successor, installing him as the mayor of the capital city Dushanbe, and naming him speaker of the Tajik senate, a post that makes him the constitutionally mandated successor to his father in the event of illness, incapacity or death.
As is often the case within the clans of the rich and powerful, not everyone within Rahmon’s extended family is reportedly on board with the succession plan. Some apparently view Rustam, 37, to be something of a hot head not fit for the top spot in the family. Reports that he has shot at least two individuals for displeasing him, including an uncle of his in 2008, have helped feed perceptions that he is unsuited to lead the country.
It is unclear how much support Rustam has among his siblings: one brother and seven sisters. One sister, Ozoda, has led the presidential administration and is generally considered the most capable of Rahmon’s children.
Rahmon’s January purge suggests that opposition within the family to Rustam’s elevation may be more widespread than previously believed. The heir apparent has perhaps made things more difficult than necessary by not including close family members in his inner circle.
Rahmon’s evident desire for a father-to-son dynastic transfer is far from an anomaly in the region. Similar transitions of power have occurred in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, although Serdar Berdymukhamedov in Ashgabat has yet to have his training wheels removed by his father, Gurbanguly. Rumors also occasionally circulate in Uzbekistan that incumbent President Shavkat Mirziyoyev would not mind seeing his daughtereventually succeed him.
source:Eurasianet
